Lord Noel's Economic Indicators

What ho! Economists.............

When it comes to the economy everyone has an opinion...............

.........from bankers to economists, government officials to taxi drivers, husbands and wives..........

.....they ALL have a prognostication of where the economy is heading.

The trouble is that they also change their minds almost daily, leaving us wondering if they are basing their predictions on tea leaf readings...............

So it was with some relief that I finally came across a 'reliable index'..................

.............which CAN be used to predict the near-term economic future............

Even Alan Greenspan, the former head of the American Federal Reserve, said "It is as good a prognosticator of the economy as any other economic index in use".

The index theory was developed by a consumer research firm called The NPD Group.

Marshal Cohen, a senior analyst with NPD, said "The theory behind the index suggests that sales of a particular item are stable - as are sales of other necessities - but during financial downturns sales drop off"............

"It's a prolonged purchase," Cohen told reporters. "It's like trying to drive your car an extra 10,000 miles."

The research firm 'Mintel', which started tracking these sales in 2003, found 2009 sales will probably fall 2.3 percent.

The group also predicts the drop will slow even further for 2010.

Officials say sales are a good predictor because, since hardly anyone sees it, people feel they can delay purchasing new items.

By now you must be wondering what this 'special indicator item' is..............

Well............

....it's PANTS.

Mens Pants to be exact...............

I know what you're thinking................

......"What if men stop wearing underwear because it feels good? Will Wall Street crash?" and "Are we talking boxers or briefs, or does it matter?"

And............."Why aren't womens 'underpants' taken into account?"

...............After all, they are much more fun to look at ..............

Well............

....whether these factors have any long term impact remains to be seen..........

.......but in the meantime............just remember..............

....if you really want to know how the economy is doing..........

....just check out your old chaps pants............

............And if he looks particularly good in those new pants it might just be a sign..............

............that the economy is recovering............... and if doesn't.............

.....then it's likely that the economy is pants too!

Tallyho!

Best Wishes - Lord Noel & Lady Jacqueline